A picture has started to emerge of the potential economic fallout of America’s existing, as well as potentially imminent, tariffs on South African goods.

Recent econometric modelling has helped to expose the big picture, including an EY analysis suggesting a potential fall in the value of South African exports to the US of between $1.4-billion and $1.6-billion yearly in 2024 prices. Separate modelling by the University of Cape Town’s School of Economics points to a potential loss of $2.3-billion, once the higher tariffs imposed on South Africa relative to competitor exporters are also taken into account. In 2024, South Africa exported goods to the US valued at $14.9-billion.

Against the even bigger canvas of South Africa’s GDP the picture appears modest. Calculations by XA Global Trader Advisers, for instance, show that existing tariffs, together with the 30% reciprocal tariffs proposed for implementation on August 1, would affect only 1.3% of GDP. This is partly because, while 8% of South Africa’s yearly exports go to the US, many of these are in the form of critical minerals or precious metals that have been specifically exempted from the various tariff instruments being deployed by President Donald Trump.

Besides the high-profile reciprocal tariffs being pursued using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (which is the subject of litigation), Trump is using various sections of that country’s Trade Act to impose trade restrictions, including Section 232, whereby import duties are imposed on products that threaten to impair America’s national security. Section 232 tariffs of 50% have already been imposed on steel, aluminium and copper, while the section has been used to impose 25% tariffs on automotives and automotive components.

In other words, US tariff protection is poised to remain a reality on at least some products even if the 30% reciprocal tariffs fall foul of court rulings, or if South Africa’s diplomatic efforts, which have thus far not yielded any positive outcomes, succeed in whole or in part before August 1.

A series of smaller pictures are also emerging that display potentially bleaker scenes, however.

South Africa’s export-oriented automotive sector is particularly exposed, especially the local units of BMW and Mercedes-Benz, which both export their luxury models to America. The latter made headlines when it shut production in July; a move that was linked to Trump’s tariffs, even though the reasons appear manifold. The industry body is now warning that, unless the US market is retained, there is a risk of key industrial hubs becoming “ghost towns”.

The picture in certain parts of the farming sector, including nuts and citrus, is equally troubling. Given seasonal realities, the US will continue to import citrus . Thus, the main issue will be the level of tariffs imposed on South Africa relative to other southern hemisphere producers, such as Chile and Peru.

At 30%, our tariff is already relatively high. What, then, if Trump follows through with his threat to impose an additional 10% on BRICS countries?